timokaj's posterous

For the 3rd year in a row, I have taken money out of my RRSP.  I honestly wish I never made any contributions.  My 1st year I took out the basic exemption about of about 10,000, but for the 2nd and 3rd year, I've upped it to the limit of the 20% withholding, which is $15,000.00.  My intention is to completely break down my RRSP, so that by the time a RIF is required, hopefully, there will be nothing left in the account!  They way the government taxation works, you are penalized for saving.  Don't even get me started on why Dividends are taxed as income-without the benefit of the Dividend Tax Credit.  Dividends have already been taxed at the corporate level, that's why they are called dividends.  But in RRSP's they are treated as income.  Bottom line is, RRSP's suck!

Just a quick trading note:  I have learned over the years, that just because you have money in your account, doesn't mean you have to put it to work right away.  I have a friend who loves doing cover calls (Options) and on the 3rd Friday of every month he usually ends up with lots of cash (stocks called away), and he puts it right to work the following day.  In his case I understand, because he's selling time, and waiting a week can mean much lower premiums on covered calls (but not always).  Just becuase you have $50,000 cash, doesn't mean there is an opportunity today.   I think putting the money to work right away isn't always the best idea.  Just because I sold my CMM yesterday, and I have $6500 cash (burning a hole in my pocket) in my TFSA, doesn't mean I have to do something right away.  It doesn't mean you can't do something, but in general I find waiting just a little while is a good idea.  It teaches patience.  A lot of the time, the stock market is a waiting game (waiting for stocks to go up), but that waiting game includes CASH positions!

OK, I've decided I'll take my profit on CMM at .66 cents. 11am February 9th

Well, things are finally starting to look up for my TFSA portfolio.  I have to admit, I was getting a bit embarrassed at the position I was in.  First I was out of cash (only had $10,000 to start - and I ran out quickly), and second I was holding stocks that were worth less than I paid.  Not what my intentions were when I started this blog.  Here I was, touting the fantastic benefits of the TFSA, and I was only up 5% thanks to a winning trade early on, and my current position had munched away on that profit.  But at last, my picks are starting to show some signs of life and giving me a respectable 18+% gain for the 6 months and a few days that I have been doing this.  The original object of course was to achieve a 100% return for the year, so I am still behind the 8 ball, but I do have some tricks up my sleeve, and I think I can still pull it off.  I am holding off on selling CMM, as it's making some gains on good volume, and I think we could see 60 cents shortly. We just need some good news.  If it were to make it to the 60's, I be tempted to pull the trigger and move on, as this has been much too long a time frame for me.  On the IVM, I'll hold until I get my money back and a small profit, which I think could be quite soon.  Stocks I'm looking at are SBR (Silver Bear) and VST (VAST Exploration) as well as NGM (Northern Gold Mines). 

Current Portfolio:

An excellent article about TFSA's by Rob Carrick (Globe and Mail) Thursday, January 13, 2011.

"Love the tax refund you get when you make an RRSP contribution? Too bad it doesn't love you back."

https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110113/GICARRICK0113ATL

If you've read one of my earlier posts, you'll see this article confirms my beliefs that TFSA'a are the way to save for your retirement.

Rgds Pete

PS:  Thanks to Rob Carick for giving me permission to post his link and a line from the article.

I guess I won't be winning any awards for my blog.  My last post was Nov 17th, almost 2 months ago.  The problem was, I was stuck in trades that were below water (losing money), but the companies I bought didn't have any major negative changes or news, so there was no good reason to bail, except for fear (losing more money) and embarrassment (I'm suppose to double my TFSA in 1 year, and time is ticking).  I was also stuck due to the limited funds I am playing with.  I only have 2 positions.  I originally decided I'd start the TFSA Blog using the original rules of $5000.00 per year. 2011 is year 3 for TFSA's. Technically, I could add another $5000.00 for 2011, but I'd like to double my original 10G's first, so the % returns are not screwed up.

OK, Century Mining came out with it's earnings and production numbers, and regardless of what I think, the market says they are not good.  Which is what I thought too.  I was disappointed with first the loss, "The Washington-based gold miner, which is working to reopen a Quebec mine, reports it lost $3.9 million, or a penny per share, in its third-quarter." compared to a 1 cent profit for the same quarter last year.  Although they did confirm their guidance "and has kept its guidance for the Lamaque operation at 80,000 to 90,000 ounces for 2011."   So, my problem is that if I want to double my TFSA, I'm pretty sure it won't be done by holding CMM - not that it won't eventually get there, but it will take too long.  The stock went down to 39 cents (from 44-46), and is now about 40 - 40 1/2.  It seems to be holding in that area, so there is no rush to get out, and maybe I can get a penny or 2 more before bailing! That's problem one.

Sorry for the lack of posts, but it has been a very quiet time for my TFSA - but the market has been booming.  When I started this thing (Blog) I though I would be posting at least once a week, and also trading that often as well.  What has happened to me is quite common, but for me it's extremely frustrating, as I have no patience, or at least very little.  What has happened is I've become jammed-up (underperforming stocks and no cash).  Both my stocks, CMM - Century Mining and IMV - Immunovaccine are doing nothing.  Actually - worse than nothing, they are down (Under Water).  With the companies themselves, nothing much has changed, and I still think the best thing to do is to try and wait it out.  There is a big meeting for CMM on the 19th of November, and I'm hoping we get some good numbers released (Profits and ounces of gold), which could move the stock higher.  If that doesn't happen, either good numbers or a higher stock price, I may have to take the loss and move on.  Now, my second stock is also a bit of a disappointment, but I think it just needs a little more time.  The big problem for both is we are moving into the tax loss season (late November and December) - (Where people who have made big gains - sell their losers, so they won't have to pay tax on the winners).

I'll give you an example of Tax Loss Selling.  Let's say I have 2 stocks, CMM which I bought at 80 cents, and PCY which I bought for 50 cents)  PCY is now at $1.00, so if I sell it, I'll make 50 cents a share (Profit), and have to pay capital gains tax on that gain (but, only if it is outside a RRSP/RIF/TFSA).  So, I would have to pay tax on that gain, but if I sold my CMM down here at 42 cents at a loss of 38 cents a share, I could deduct the loss from the gain and pay no tax, or much less tax, because one offsets the other.)

So, depending on how the trading year was, we could see a wild December as investors - traders jockey their positions in preparation for the taxes due in April 2011.

Not much else to say, or even do, I'll have to make up my mind on the 19th.  I'll talk to you then.  Keep your fingers and eyes crossed!

Rgds Timo

Current Portfolio:

Total Value $10,269.00

Hi Guys, (and Gals hopefully)

Things are starting to look pretty good in the Canadian Junior Resource market these days.

If you look at my last sell order, it looks like I made an error getting out too soon of (CRI) Castle Resources at 27 cents.  I paid 18.5, and I was happy to sell at a profit, but  it continued past .27 and hit a high of  41 after I sold, which would have been huge as far as percentage move upwards for my TFSA, but you can't buy at the bottom, or sell at the top.  Sometimes you get lucky, and you get close to the low, or the high, but almost never both.  Getting one is difficult enough.

If you look at my holdings now, you'll see that I bought (CMM) at .48 cents, and it went as low as .38 or .39 cents (big percentage loss).  Just last week it started to climb back up to my original price paid, and I had to resist the big mistake lots of investors make.  The mistake I have made many times, and that’s selling and getting your money back.  I would say, if something changed with the company, it could be a good idea, but in the case of Century, nothing changed, or you could argue the only change was good news, as the price of gold continued to rise to new highs.  Psychologically it’s hard not to panic, and be happy just get ting your original investment back, but the thing is, my stock is now trending higher, and that trend should continue.  So, for that reason, I’m continuing to hold CMM in the hopes of at least a 20% or $1000 profit.  As it is right now, my portfolio is worth more than it was.

As far as IMV is concerned, it is behaving exactly as it should.  The secondary issue put cheap, or cheaper shares on the market, so it will be depressed for a short time, and then should return to it’s original trading range of somewhere between $1.20 and $1.30.  My plan is to sell out at about $1.25 for about a $1,700 profit, and then get into some others I have been watching like PCY or NGM, but that will depend on their price at the time.

Current Portfolio:

$ 4,900.00    10,000  CMM @ .49 to 49.5 cents

$ 6,461.00      7,100  IMV at $.91 - .99

$     55.00     CASH

$11,416.00    TOTAL VALUE based on Bid price

Original Investment $10,000

Portfolio Start Date July 26, 2010

If you have any questions, I can be contacted at timokaj@yahoo.com

They say, "The rich get richer and the poor get poorer".

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water!

Hi there, how are things?  Good I hope!

Symbol PCY on TSX Venture Exchange

What a difference a few days makes. MFC continues to suffer from two major problems.  The first is, obviously, their poor earnings released last week.  They had to post a massive loss for the last quarter, and that was on top of what was thought to be a massive loss the previous quarter.  (It was big, but not as big as this quarter).

I know my Blog is not read by many, but I make every attempt to appear professional.  I am not an exceptional writer, but I aspire to be one.  Every morning I carefully read the business section of the National Post and the Globe and Mail.  I read writers like Barry Critchley and Diane Francis.  I noticed that they have these little illustrations of their likeness next to the article.  I believe that was originally started by the Wall Street Journal.  I was thinking this is the type of thing that might up my game in the Business Commentary world.  So I've asked my wife if she could do up an illustration of me for my blog, something to add to the overall professional look of my posts.  So, today you'll see an illustration of my likeness before my commentary on the market. Let the professionalism begin!

Here is another example of not only following the news flow of a stock and trying to understand how it works, but also another example of when it pays to sell a stock at a loss.  I wrote about both of these in previous posts: One about when to sell, and another about the news cycles, and how they affect stocks.

Discount Brokerage
Action:	Sell
Quantity:	1,000
Symbol:	MFC - MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP
Market:	CA - Canadian
Price:	MKT
Order expires end of:	05-Aug-2010
Special Instructions:	There are no special instructions
Reference Number:	XX*1112
Status:	Filled
Order Date:	05-Aug-2010
Time:	9:16:24 AM EDT

 

 

Filled Order Details   Filled Quantity @ Price Fill Time Fill Date     400 $15.00 9:30:00 AM EDT 05-Aug-2010     200 $15.00 9:30:00 AM EDT 05-Aug-2010     400 $15.00 9:30:00 AM EDT 05-Aug-2010

 

So, yesterday I get into the office, and I see that the stock (CMM) I bought a few days ago is halted.  This is always a bit nerve wracking as you don't know if it's going to be good news or bad.  The other thing that's funny is many times I get news about halted stocks, and often I get it wrong.  A stock is halted and I read the news about some drill results, and I think, "Fantastic!  Those result are good." And an hour or 2 later the stock goes down.  Or it's the other way around.  The real way to tell if it's good news or not is to simply watch the stock.  If it goes up, it's good news, and obviously, if it goes down, it's bad news.  So what was I to think about this news:

Originally I thought I could maybe make recommendations, or somehow advise or guide others on how to invest in a TFSA—remember, I am not qualified to give financial advice, hell - I'm not qualified to walk your dog or pack bags at a grocery store, but that's another story.  However, that's too complicated as everyone has a different amount of money in their account, and some will be conservative, and others aggressive.  And to be truthful (this is usually where people lie, when they say to be truthful), I'm a bit worried about making recommendations, as I don't want anyone to lose money based on my advice. So what I think I'll do is simply post my TFSA account transactions, and hopefully show how I can double my TFSA in 1 year.  I'm taking the Kevin O'Leary approach to giving advice where I basically come out and say, "I am not recommending this stock. I'm just telling you what I would do."

I will start with $10,000, which is the amount anyone could contribute, as the maximum is $5000 a year, and we are in year 2 of the TFSA accounts.  So I'll start with $10,000 and hopefully within 1 year, or by August 2011, my account with be worth at least $20,000. Thus I'll have made a 100% return.  That will be my goal.  Anyone who reads my blog will be able to see how it was done.  I'll post the dates I buy something, and the dates I sell.  I have a TD Waterhouse account, so I will assume a cost of $10.00 (actually 9.99, but $10 is easier to work with) brokerage per trade.  I realize this is a pretty aggressive goal and returns like this are usually reserved for Ponzi schemes, but I think I can do it.

So, I've got 10G's in my pocket, and it's already burning a hole in my pocket.

So, here goes;

July 26th-1:00PM

I'm buying 10,000 shares of Century Mining on the Venture Exchange (CMM).  Current Bid/Ask is 47.5 to 48.  I'll buy 10,000 at .48 cents for a cost of  $4,810.00 including brokerage. Plus I'm going to buy 25,000 of Castle Resources (CRI) currently bid 17.5 to 18.5 cents.  Total cost is $4635.00 including brokerage.  I'm always going to use the ask, so no one can accuse me of buying at the low and then pretending to sell at the high.  I'll also do the same when selling, always taking the bid as opposed to the ask.  That will make it fair.  Also, although I will receive, from time to time, small amounts of interest, I will not include them in my total as they will, first, be insignificant, and second, interest income is not the purpose of my TFSA account.

Current holdings:

10,000 CMM @ 48 cents  = $  4810.00

25,000 CRI  @ .185 cents =  $ 4635.00

Total Purchases  $ 9445.00

Cash  $   555.00

Grand Total   $10,000

Timo